America's Only Road to Pro/ Rel

Is there any realistic way for America to end up with a system of Promotion and Relegation?


Let me start by saying this: It Ain't Gonna Happen.  The Promotion and Relegation format is as appealing to me as it is to any other sports fan, but the road that soccer in America would have to take to arrive at it is so improbable that it feels like nothing but a pipe dream.  So without further ado, I give you the road that America would have to take to arrive at a Pro/Rel system, and why it's never gonna happen.

1. Owner's Aren't Buying a 2nd Division Team

MLS is at a critical stage in it's development, in which they need to make sure that the people that are investing in the league are going to be quality partners for the long term.  In turn, these billionaires that have agreed to invest a substantial amount of money into an uncertain venture want to feel assured that they aren't in danger of a sudden decrease in the value of their investment.  If they are going to pay a $100 million fee just to join the league, and also be expected to build their own stadium, you'd better believe they want some assurances that they won't then be relegated to a 2nd division.  And even if you wanted to argue for pro/rel down the road, the nature of the agreements being made now are such that they would prevent a sudden switch in the future.  The impetus for change would have to come at the hands of the owners, and it's just hard for me to imagine them ever even considering it.  Which brings me to my next thought:

2. MLS Must be Forced into Action

It makes no difference whatsoever if there is some fan support for it, or if it seems as though it is the more sporting way to determine who deserves to be in the top division, it all comes down to money.  The only way that we will ever have Promotion and Relegation in this country is if MLS is absolutely bleeding money because they refuse to make the change.  The aforementioned billionaire owners would have to be forced to see pro/rel as a profitable venture, even if that meant some of them going down to a second division.  But how could that even be possible?  Under what circumstances would there be an option in which some teams being relegated to a second division at the end of the year would be acceptable?

And here it is: The only long shot snowballs-chance-in-hell way that America could end up with Pro/Rel:

3. The NASL and USL Have to do it First

• 2014: NASL and USL Pro announce that starting the following season, they will be implementing a three up, three down Pro/Rel system.
  
• 2017: Huge increases in season ticket holders and national attention from the past three years have enabled six teams to build new stadiums, including three that seat over 30k.  NONE of the relegated teams have folded as a result of their relegation.  Pro/Rel battles begin to get some traction from the national media, and several players get signed to contracts from big European clubs. But still, MLS is the more popular league that attracts more players and fans.
• 2020: NASL and USL are taking a huge bite out of MLS's popularity and ratings, and the league has suffered from five years of criticism from not joining the experiment.  A few international stars have signed with NASL teams (such as the Cosmos), and first division attendance numbers are starting to outstrip MLS clubs on a per team basis. 
• 2023: Toward the end of every NASL season, SportsCenter leads off with highlights from promotion and relegation battles every night.  Talk radio in San Antonio, St. Louis, Edmonton, etc. talk incessantly about their teams chances to either get promoted or relegated, and whether or not their coach should be fired.  Pro/rel battles have given the NASL/USL the cultural cache that MLS so desperately craves, and the whole nation is caught up in the excitement.
• 2025: The pro/rel divisions are on the verge of signing a MASSIVE TV deal that would give them the ability to financially rival MLS.  But there is an implicit knowledge that if MLS were to join the pro/rel format as the top division, the TV deal would become one of the richest for a league in the entire world.  MLS owners are left with no choice but to agree to the deal, feeling assured that they would remain relevant and profitable in the face of relegation.

Some version of this timeline is the only possible way that this can happen, and it seems completely implausible.  It would take another professional soccer league within the United States to rise to prominence and rival MLS, and they would have to do it because of their pro/rel format.  And that's the most crucial point: Pro/Rel has to be the reason that the other league is so popular.  If the league's popularity is because of increased support for several up and coming teams, MLS will simply poach the most popular teams and life will go on as normal.

The part that really gets me about the idea of moving toward Promotion and Relegation is that it has to be profitable.  And it can't just have the chance of profitability, it has to be determined beyond a shadow of a doubt that this model is going to make more money for everybody, and there is no choice but to go that direction.  And that is just not going to happen.  The teams with fewer resources will be terrified at the idea of sinking into the lower divisions, never to be seen again.  It wouldn't take long for the Columbus Crew to make it down to USL, and fans to stop showing up completely.  Having teams fold because of a lack of fan support is terrible for the league,  and it would absolutely happen.  I agree that there are some teams that would be weeded out that didn't deserve to be in the league in the first place (Chivas), but having them fail brutally is terrible business.

The teams with the most resources wouldn't be as scared of being lost in the lower divisions, but there is little to be gained from them taking the risk.  A single season down in the NASL could scare away sponsorship, affect attendance, and even prevent them from signing marquee players from around the world.  The LA Galaxy have had consistent success throughout almost their entire history, but their 6th place finish in the Western Conference in 2008 would have had them in danger of being relegated for the following season.  By the time soccer culture in America is so significant that something of that nature would not be a death knell for the league, the ownership will have an even greater stake in keeping their club in the top division.  They wouldn't have to take a risk like that, because they own a team in the fastest emerging soccer market in the entire world.

I believe that over the next fifty years or so, the world is going to move away from the Pro/Rel paradigm.  The stakes have simply gotten too high for the owner's of these multi-billion dollar businesses, and it doesn't make sense that so much risk is involved.  If the Premier League was being formed today, and they were trying to attract the richest, most dedicated owners that they possibly could, would they even consider the idea of Promotion and Relegation?  Sheikh Mansour and Roman Abramovich would laugh that idea right out of the building.  Given the chance, there is no way that these insanely rich and powerful men would allow something like that to happen.  And that is basically the scenario we are faced with here in America.  We are trying to start the Premier League, but against the backdrop of modern financial reality.

I love the idea of Pro/Rel.  I think it makes for excitement at both the top and bottom of the table, and in a perfect world it would be the system we used in America.  But unless MLS owners are absolutely monetarily forced to make the change, the idea will never even be seriously floated.

It Aint Gonna Happen.  Ever.